None of my ecosystem management (EM) literature discusses the fact that evolution, tectonics, climate, fire, migration, extinction, lifespan, disease spread, and most (if not all) other important ecological phenomena are stochastic events, varying in temporal and areal magnitude. Stochastic events are those affected by an element of chance. If EM truly incorporates an "ecological approach", as billed, then it should incorporate elements of stochasticity into its implementation. Stochasticity is perhaps the most fundamental and universal of ecological tenets. None of the plans developed so far have been successful at ensuring the conservation of native biotic diversity, suggesting that Desired Future Conditions established today will, like so many other "apparent solutions" embraced by the Forest Service over the decades, be less than successful. The concept of Target Stands, similarly, assumes that we have complete control over ecological processes, which we do not.

I don't claim that stochasticism is the only answer or that it is a panacea. But let us never lull ourselves into believing that we have found the answer until all the facts are in (which will never happen).

Though novel in EM, stochasticism is not an unrealistic concept to incorporate into management practice. After all, stochasticity resulted in the great biotic wealth we have so profitably reaped, and so determinedly reduced. We are off to a good start with EM. Let's be as open minded as possible and not let EM become an apparent solution. If this passage does nothing more than start a new discussion, it has fulfilled its purpose. We must work cooperatively if we are to make progress in this complex field.

I invite your thoughts and responses.

I asked my wise ole buddy Joe Moreau what he thought EM was about, at its core. A few minutes later, this appeared in my e-mail. -Ed.

Consider ecology on whatever scale, or even non-biological cycles as an exchange of data. Since all matter has organization, be it molecular, crystalline, tissue, or whatever, and it's all held together in order (even entropic processes still maintain some organization at some scale), and that order is determined by characteristics that can be predicted, and any such characteristics constitute information (data), then digestion, light waves, growth, nutrient cycling, the hydrologic cycle, in short, everything known and unknown to man constitutes information exchange from one level, entity, organism, etc. to another. I guess the one hole in this is "does it take a human being to recognize something in order to call it data or information." Maybe not. Waddaya think?

-Joe Morreau